Olive Oil Prices to Surge Due to Drought in Mediterranean Region
Industry experts are warning that consumers will have to fork out more for olive oil, as droughts in the Mediterranean region take their toll on olive oil production. Consumers across Europe have already seen prices rise by an average of 26 percent in the last two years. Spanish consumers have felt the pinch of a massive 36-percent price rise according to research group IRI.
The price of EVOO has already spiked by nearly 25 percent this year resulting in wholesale prices of reaching over $4,200 per ton. Retail prices have not yet caught up, due to the time lag and supermarkets buying in bulk.
Panayotis Karantonis, director of the Athens-based Greek Association of Olive Oil Processors and Packers told the Financial Times, “Over the coming months the prices in supermarkets in the U.S. and U.K. will be higher than two-to-three months before.”
A predicted drop of 14 percent in world production has been forecast. Mediterranean countries including Spain, Greece, and Italy have seen a sharp fall in production due to the hot, dry conditions that have prevailed.
The International Olive Council (IOC) estimated that Italian output may halve this year to 243,000 tons from last year’s 475,600 tons. Greece could see a 20-percent drop from 320,000 tons to 260,000 tons and Spain’s production is expected to be over six percent down, from 1.402 million tons to 1.311 million tons. Tunisia’s production is expected to fall by 17 percent.
Vito Martielli, a grains and oilseeds analyst at Rabobank predicted the global harvest will decrease by about 600,000 tons. Martielli told the FT, “We have had bad weather affecting production three years out of the last five.”
Jonathan Watson, chief analyst at Foreign Currency Direct told the Telegraph, “A drought in the Mediterranean has hurt crop yields and major exporters like Greece and Italy are struggling to meet output expectations.”
Watson added, “The other major contributor is Brexit, with the drop in the value of the Pound meaning rising costs for U.K. importers and supermarkets. Faced with the Pound some 13 percent down versus the Euro since the referendum vote, the cost to buy goods from overseas has increased for British businesses.”
Production has been higher than in 2012 when drought hit Spain, and 2014 when the Xylella fastidiosa bacteria infected many of Italy’s olive trees, but more frequent declines in output and shorter supplies have made the olive oil market increasingly vulnerable to price spikes.
European demand for olive oil has decreased due to lower supplies and price hikes caused by the low value of the British pound. Demand elsewhere remained high, particularly in Australia, Brazil and China according to the IOC.
Earlier this year Walter Zanre, the boss of Filippo Berio U.K. prophesized that 2017 “Will be a very bad year for olive oil.”
資料來源：
Olive Oil Times
參考翻譯：
橄欖油專家警告，由於地中海地區的乾旱對橄欖油的生產造成傷害，消費者將不得不花更多的錢來購買橄欖油。歐洲的消費者在過去兩年已經看到價格平均上漲了26％。根據IRI研究組織，橄欖油消費者感覺到36％的價格上漲。
初榨橄欖油的價格今年已經上漲近25％，批發價格達到每噸超過$ 4,200。由於時間滯後，超市大量購買，零售價格尚未上漲。
希臘雅典橄欖油加工商協會主管Panayotis Karantonis對“金融時報”表示：“未來幾個月，美英超級市場的價格將高於過去兩三個月。”
世界產量預測將下降14％，包括西班牙，希臘和義大利等地中海國家，由於炎熱乾燥而造成產量大幅下滑。
國際橄欖委員會估計，今年的義大利產量可能會比去年的475,600噸減少一半，達到243,000噸。希臘可能會從320,000噸下降到260,000萬噸，下降20％，西班牙的產量預計將從1,402,000噸下降到1,310,000噸。突尼西亞的產量預計下降17%。
Rabobank的穀物和油籽分析師Vito Martielli預測，全球收穫將減少約600,000噸。Vito Martielli告訴英國“金融時報”，“過去五年裡，我們近三年來一直受惡劣的天氣影響。”
外匯市場首席分析師Jonathan Watson告訴“電訊報”，“地中海乾旱損害了農作物產量，希臘和義大利等主要出口國正在努力滿足產量預期。”
Jonathan Watson補充說：“另一個主要影響是英國脫歐，英鎊的價值下降意味著英國進口商和超市的成本上漲。自公投以來，英鎊對歐元下跌約13％，英國企業對海外購買商品的成本有所增加。“
自2012年乾旱襲擊西班牙及2014年義大利的許多橄欖樹受到Xylella fastidiosa細菌感染以來，產量大幅下降，供應量減少使得橄欖油市場越來越容易遭受價格上漲的壓力。
歐洲對橄欖油的需求下降係由於英鎊貶值造成的供應減少和價格上漲。根據國際奧委會，其他地區的需求依然很高，特別是在澳洲，巴西和中國。
今年早些時候，英國Filippo Berio的老闆Walter Zanre預言，2017年“對橄欖油供應商來說，將是一個非常糟糕的一年”。
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